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The hottest welcome mother cluckers chicken doormat

would be. I generally think that the same techniques we use would be useful for forecasting 10 years out, but we don’t even know that. And so a lot of the things that I would look at in terms of global catastrophic risk would be things that might happen at some distant point in the future. Now what’s the risk that there will be a nuclear war in 2020, The hottest welcome mother cluckers chicken doormat but also over the next 50 years? It’s a somewhat different thing to do. I think a big problem selling forecasting is that people don’t know what to do with a 78% chance of this, or let’s say a 2% chance of a pandemic in a given year, I’m just making that up. But somewhere in that ballpark, what does that mean about how you should prepare? I think that people don’t know how to work with that. So it’s not clear to me that our forecasts are necessarily affecting policy. Although it’s the kind of thing that gets written up in the news and who knows how much that affects people’s opinions, or they talk about it at Davos and maybe those people go back and they change what they’re doing. Yeah, I mean it varies widely. And to some extent it varies widely on the basis of how many times have I forecasted something similar. So sometimes we’ll forecast the change in interest rates, the fed moves. That’s something that’s obviously a lot of interest to people in finance. And at this point, I’ve looked at that kind of thing enough times that I have set ideas about what would make that likely or not likely to happen. But what I tell people for background is that the US intelligence community had this forecasting competition basically just to see if anyone could meaningfully forecast the future because it turns out one of the things that we’ve seen in the past is that people who supposedly have expertise in subjects don’t tend to be very good at estimating probabilities that things will happen. And if you find the content and subject matter of this podcast to be important and beneficial, consider sharing it with friends, subscribing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or whatever your preferred listening platform, and leaving us a review. It’s really helpful for getting information on technological risk and the future of life to more people. Welcome to the Future of Life Institute Podcast. I’m Lucas Perry. Today we have a conversation with Robert de Neufville about superforecasting. But, before I get more into the episode I have two items I’d like to discuss. The first is that the Future of Life Institute is looking for the 2020 recipient of the Future of Life Award. For those not familiar, the Future of Life Award is a $50,000 prize that we give out to an individual who, without having received much recognition at the time of their actions, has helped to make today dramatically better than it may have been otherwise. The first two recipients were Vasili Arkhipov and Stanislav Petrov, two heroes of the

The hottest welcome mother cluckers chicken doormat
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