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their own pockets without even realizing they’re doing it or something. So I’m a little bit skeptical about it and right now what we’re seeing with the pandemic, I think we systematically underprepare for certain kinds of things, that there are reasons why it doesn’t help leaders very much to prepare for things that will never happen. I mean, this is a little bit of a philosophical critique of consequentialist kind of analyses of things too. Like if you ask if something is good or bad, it may have an endless chain of consequences  The hottest missing puzzle couple i am her missing piece face mask rippling throughout future history and maybe it’s really a disaster now, but maybe it means that future Hitler isn’t born. How do you evaluate that? It might seem like a silly trivial point, but the fact is it may be really difficult to know enough about the consequences of your action to an expected value calculation. So your expected value calculation may have to be kind of a approximation in a certain sense, given broad things we know these are things that are likely to happen. I still think expected value calculations are good. I just think there’s a lot of uncertainty in them and to some extent it’s probably irreducible. I think it’s always better to think about things clearly if you can. It’s not the only approach. You have to get buy-in from people and that makes a difference. But the more you can do accurate analysis about things, I think the better your decisions are likely to be. Yeah, so I don’t necessarily know all the different distinction categories someone would make. I think a prediction market particularly is where you have some set of funds, some kind of real or fantasy money. We used one market in the Good Judgement project. Our money was called Inkles and we could spend that money. And essentially, they traded probabilities like you would trade a share. So if there was a 30% chance of something happening on the market, that’s like a price of 30 cents. And you would buy that for 30 cents and then if people’s opinions about how likely that was changed and a lot of people

The hottest missing puzzle couple i am her missing piece face mask
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