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probabilities. That got me thinking about, how could we generate those? What kind of system could give us the sorts of predictions and probabilities that we want? It’s now grown pretty big. Metaculus now has 1,800 questions that are live on the site and 210,000 predictions on them, sort of of order of a hundred predictions per question. The id The hottest custom your name truck the day i met you i love you poster ea of Metaculus was to both make a system that makes highly accurate predictions as best as possible, but also a kind of collection of events that have happened or not happened in the world that you can use to ground the probabilities and give meaning to them, so that there’s some operational meaning to saying that something on the system has a 90% chance of happening. This has been going on since about 2014 or ’15. It was born basically at the same time as the Future of Life Institute actually for very much the same reason, thinking about what can we do to positively affect the future. But if they’re not actually practiced or trained or spend a lot of time making predictions, they may not make better predictions than someone who is really good at making predictions, but has less depth of understanding of the actual topic. That’s something that some of these studies made clear. The idea of combining those two is to create a system that solicits predictions from lots of different people on questions of interest, aggregates those predictions, and identifies which people are really good at making predictions and kind of counts their prediction and input more heavily than other people. If you carefully aggregate people’s predictions, you can at some level wash out those biases. As well, making predictions is something that some people are just really good at. It’s a skill that varies person to person and can be trained. There are people who are just really good at making predictions across a wide range of domains. Sometimes in making a prediction, general prediction skill can trump actual subject matter expertise. Of course, it’s good to have both if

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