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other group of people that he found did a little bit better and he called him foxes, and foxes are tricky. They have all sorts of different approaches. They don’t just come in with some dogmatic ideology. They look at things from a lot of different angles. So that was sort of the initial research that inspired him. And there’s other people that were t The hottest custom your name billiard club cool beer good times poster alking about this, but it was ultimately Phil Tetlock and Barb Miller’s group that outperformed everyone else, had looked for people that were good at forecasting and they put them together in teams, and they aggregated their scores with algorithmic magic. There was a famous study by Phil Tetlock. I think in the 90s it came out as a book called Expert Political Judgment, and he found essentially that experts were not good at this. But what he did find, he made a distinction between foxes and hedgehogs you might’ve heard. Hedgehogs are people that have one way of thinking about things, one system, one ideology, and they apply it to every question, just like the hedgehog has one trick and it’s its spines. Hedgehogs didn’t do well. If you were a Marxist or equally a dyed in the wool Milton Friedman capitalist and you applied that way of thinking to every problem, you tended not to do as well at forecasting. It actually was the intelligence community, although though I think military intelligence participated in this. But I mean I didn’t study to be a forecaster and I think most of us didn’t. I don’t know if there really has been a formal study that would lead you to be a forecaster. People just learn subject matter and then apply that in some way. There must be some training that people had gotten in the past, but I don’t know about it. And one of the stats that we got later was that as a group we were more accurate 300 days ahead of a question being resolved than others were just a hundred days ahead. As far as what makes the technique of superforecasting sort of fundamentally distinct, I think one of the things is that we have a system for scoring our accuracy. A lot of times when people think

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