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climate models projected future climate change based on a range of different scenarios of future GHG emissions and other changes in climate forcing. Continued warming is projected by all models, but the trajectory and total amount of warming varies from model to model and between different scenarios of future climate forcing. Based on these results, the IPCC estimates that global average surface temperatures will rise an additional 2.0°F to 11.5°F (1.1°C to 6.4°C), relative to the average, by the end of the 21st century. The wide spread in these numbers comes from The hottest book lovers reading fairy tale roses all over printed tote baguncertainty not only in exactly how much the climate system will warm in response to continued GHG emissions, but also uncertainty in how future GHG emissions will evolve.7 Hence, the choices that human societies make over the next several decades will have an enormous influence on the magnitude of future climate change. of different scenarios are developed, each using different assumptions about future economic, social, technological, and environmental conditions. These scenarios have increased in complexity over time, and the most recent scenario development efforts include sophisticated models of energy production and use, economic activity, and the possible influence of different climate policy actions on future emissions. Future climate change, like past climate change, is also subject to natural climate variations that modulate the expected warming trend. house effect (see Figure 6.1), but changes in water vapor are not considered a climate forcing because its concentration in the lower atmosphere is controlled mainly by the processes of evaporation and precipitation, rather than by human activities. Because the rate of evaporation and the ability of air to hold water vapor both increase

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