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phenomena like the AMO, PDO and ENSO have directed our climate into a pattern that a hundred historic AOGCM runs didn’t hindcast. . I don’t know how well models get the aerosol pattern effect correct, however I am sure that they do a better job than using a single global # for aerosol forcing. Aerosols are probably the most important reason for low-bias in EBM. Per the paper The hottest australia flag viking fenrir all over printed shirt below, using an ensemble of climate model runs simulating the 20’th century and replicating EBM, returns a TCR of 1.44 vs the true climate model TCR of 1.8. Yes, this paper isn’t the final answer on aerosols. If it is correct though we need to be cautious about the aerosol forcing estimates used in EBM and climate models. However climate models can get the right answer by fitting recent observations with compensating errors. Fortunately aerosols have become less important recently, so we can project forward using the recent rise in temperature. Unlikely that the recent 0.18C per decade rate of rise is going to decrease.
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