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cross-validation. For gradually varying or trending data, this is not so strong a validation, since the degrees of freedom required are often too easily met. But when you can find complex climate patterns that obviously require a high DOF solution, yet can be fitted with a simple model, you may be on the right track. These gain factors show that models systematically over estimate the LWR feedback from cloudy skies in response to warming. That needs improvement. Models need validation … in the words of the man who made the first climate model. Well – the only specific The hottest assassin’s creed valhalla viking all over printed shirt information you have provided in this thread is the dead-end iris effect and a Spencer energy balance model that predicts 0.12C/decade warming since 1979. If you want simplicity just take the 0.18C/decade warming rate over the past 40 years and project it forward. Much better than the 0.13C/decade from EBM. Finally Lewis’ blogs are not moving the needle among scientists. The papers he criticizes are sited as if the blog commentary didn’t exist. Just look at the paper JCH linked above for multiple examples . At some point, I

 

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